East Asia and Southeast Asia will drive steel demand recovery
China's steel demand is expected to recover by 2% to reach 939.3 million tons in 2023 and remain steady in 2024. Steel demand had decreased by 3.2% in 2022. Worldsteel notes that the real estate construction activities may pick up towards the end of 2023, but the main indicators of the industry remain weak. Meanwhile, infrastructure investment is shifting towards projects that use less steel.
The ASEAN countries will continue to witness robust growth in structural steel demand. The global economic slowdown, reduced tourism, and higher interest rates have affected the region, causing a 0.3% decline in steel demand in 2022. However, the return of tourism and the resumption of postponed infrastructure projects, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, will drive stronger development. In 2023, worldsteel predicts that ASEAN's steel demand will increase by 6.2% to 77.1 million tons, and it may further grow by 5.7% in 2024.
Overall, worldsteel forecasts that global steel demand will rise by 40.8 million tons to reach 1,822.3 million tons in 2023. Among this increase, China will contribute 18.4 million tons, ASEAN 4.5 million tons, Japan 2.2 million tons, and South Korea 1.5 million tons.
(Source: Kallanish)
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East Asia and Southeast Asia will drive steel demand recovery
According to Worldsteel forecast, global steel demand will start to recover in 2023 after falling 3.2% in 2022. East Asia and Southeast Asia will contribute the majority of demand growth in 2023, offsetting weakening in Europe and the United States.
Overview of the global steel market – May 2023
The downtrend in China's construction activity, which has slowed since April due to a weaker-than-expected real estate sector, is expected to continue into June, putting Chinese steel prices under pressure. Steel demand and Chinese steel prices may rebound in August-September, given the fiscal boost to the infrastructure sector and its spillover effects on the manufacturing sector. But the upside could be modest, unless government-mandated steel production cuts can be triggered.
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